Weekly Investing Report
Week ending Friday, November 13, 2026. Prices fetched 2026-11-14 15:31 (local time).
What it is
This box is a short list of the most important facts from the whole report, so you can get the picture in under a minute. Each line comes from one of the pages that follow: the fund returns, the VIX, the AAII survey, the timing signals, the sectors and bond yields.
What it means
Each line states what happened and nothing more: which funds rose or fell, which zone a reading is in, and how it changed from last week. The zone names (such as "Moderate" for the VIX or "Fear" for the AAII survey) come from the Index & ETF Method page on this site, so the same reading always gets the same name.
Guidelines to keep in mind
A summary leaves things out on purpose. If a line surprises you, open that page and read the details, including its own Explain popup. The facts are written by rules, the same way every week, so the wording changes only when the numbers do.
Where the data comes from
The same sources as the rest of the report: prices and the VIX from Yahoo Finance, investor sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), and the high-yield bond spread from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). The lines are generated by the script that builds this page, using the rules written on the Method page.
Takeaways
Use this box to see what changed, then decide which pages are worth a closer look. It describes the market; it does not tell anyone what to do.
What it is
An index is a list of companies whose stock prices are combined into one number, so you can see how a whole part of the market is doing at a glance. You can't buy an index itself, but you can buy a fund that holds every company in it. The first four funds in this table are among the biggest: SPY follows the S&P 500 (500 large US companies), QQQ follows the Nasdaq 100 (the 100 largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange, many of them tech companies), IWM follows the Russell 2000 (2,000 smaller US companies), and DIA follows the Dow Jones (30 large, well-known companies).
The other six are Vanguard funds that slice the market a different way. VUG holds growth companies, whose profits are growing quickly and whose stocks tend to be priced high for it. VTV holds value companies, which are steadier businesses priced lower compared with what they earn. VIG holds companies that have raised their dividend (the cash they pay shareholders) every year for at least ten years. VT holds nearly every stock in the world in one fund. VTI holds almost every US stock, around 3,500 companies of every size, and VXUS holds stocks from outside the US, in both developed countries like Japan and Germany and emerging ones like India and Brazil. Together, VTI and VXUS cover about the same ground as VT.
What it means
Each column is the fund's total return over that stretch of time, ending at this Friday's close: the price change plus any dividends paid, as if they were put straight back into the fund. "1W" is one week (since last Friday), "1M" one month, "6M" six months, "YTD" year to date (since the last trading day of last year), and "1Y", "5Y" and "10Y" are one, five and ten years. The 5 and 10-year columns are the total gain over the whole period, not a yearly average. Comparing the funds shows which part of the market led. The line under the table names the leader among growth (VUG), value (VTV) and dividend (VIG) funds for the week, the month and the year so far.
Guidelines to keep in mind
One week is a very short time. It is normal for stock prices to rise or fall a few percent in a week for no lasting reason, so the longer columns give better context than a single week. Over many decades, US stocks have grown about 10% a year on average with dividends included, but that average includes years with big losses. Compare funds against each other rather than reading too much into one number on its own.
Where the data comes from
Prices come from Yahoo Finance, using its "adjusted" closing prices, which build dividends into the price history. Each return is this Friday's adjusted close divided by the adjusted close at the start of the period, minus 1, shown as a percent; when the start date falls on a weekend or holiday, the last close before it is used. This is the same total-return method the ETF screener on this site uses. "n/a" means the fund did not exist yet at the start of the period.
Takeaways
Think of this table as the scoreboard. It tells you what happened, not what will happen next. Long-term results come mostly from time spent invested rather than from any one week, so a strong or weak week is a reason to understand what moved, not a reason on its own to change a plan.
What it is
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is a nonprofit group for everyday investors. Since 1987 it has asked its members the same question every week: do you think the stock market will be higher, about the same, or lower six months from now? "Bullish" means they expect it to go up, "bearish" means they expect it to go down, and "neutral" means they expect little change. The bull-bear spread is the bullish share minus the bearish share.
What it means
The Method page on this site focuses on the bearish share and sorts it into five zones: Optimism (below 25% bearish), Average (25 to 35%), Concern (35 to 50%), Fear (50 to 60%) and Extreme (above 60%). The colored bar shows where this week falls, with last week in grey. The boxes below it show the zone, the spread compared with its long-run average, how much the bearish share changed over one week and over the last few weeks, and how many weeks in a row bearish readings have outnumbered bullish ones. The chart shows the recent weeks side by side.
Guidelines to keep in mind
The method reads this survey as a "contrarian" signal: when almost everyone is scared, many have already sold, so the extreme bearish readings of the past have tended to come near market lows rather than at the start of a fall. The method is also clear that this is a pattern, not a rule: one extreme week counts for less than several weeks in a row, and the survey is meant to be read alongside the VIX and the other timing signals, never on its own.
Where the data comes from
Each week's reading is published by AAII at aaii.com/sentimentsurvey; survey weeks end on a Wednesday and results come out on Thursday. Until a full history is loaded, the historical averages and 1-year highs are shown exactly as AAII publishes them. When AAII's full history is available, the report calculates those itself and adds the percentile (how this week compares with every week since 1987) and the past S&P 500 returns after weeks with bearish above 50%. Those past returns use S&P 500 prices from Yahoo Finance and are history, not a forecast.
Takeaways
This survey is a mirror of how regular investors feel. It is most useful as a check on your own emotions: if you feel the urge to sell when everyone is gloomy, or to buy because everyone is excited, this is a reminder that the crowd's mood is already part of the price.
What it is
The VIX is a number calculated by Cboe, a US options exchange, from the prices people pay for options on the S&P 500. Options work a bit like insurance: when investors are worried about a drop, they pay more for protection, and the VIX goes up. A VIX of 20 roughly means the market expects the S&P 500 to move about 20% over a year, up or down, which works out to about 6% over the next month. That is why it is nicknamed the "fear gauge."
What it means
The Method page sorts the VIX into five zones: Complacent (below 15), Moderate (15 to 25), Elevated (25 to 35), High (35 to 45) and Crisis (above 45). The bar shows where it is this week, with last week in grey. The boxes show how it changed over a week and a month, where today's reading ranks against the past year (the percentile), its range over the past year, and the "term structure": the VIX compared with the 3-month VIX. Normally the 3-month figure is higher; when the short-term VIX is higher instead ("Inverted"), worry about the next few weeks is running ahead of worry about the months after. The strip shows how many trading days of the past year fell in each zone.
Guidelines to keep in mind
The VIX tends to come back toward the middle: spikes don't last, and very calm periods don't last either. The method calls it the most actionable timing signal for index funds and reads it the contrarian way, where high fear has historically come before recoveries and very low fear before pullbacks. A high VIX does not mean prices must rise next week; it means prices are being driven by fear more than usual.
Where the data comes from
Daily closes of the VIX and the 3-month VIX (VIX3M) come from Yahoo Finance. The percentile is the share of the last 252 trading days (about a year) that closed below today's reading. The gap to the 50-day average, in the notes on this page, is today's VIX divided by its average over the last 50 trading days, minus 1. Zones and their descriptions are taken word for word from the Method page.
Takeaways
The VIX is the market's own estimate of how bumpy the ride will be. Knowing which zone it is in helps put the headlines in context: a scary news week with a Moderate VIX is very different from one in the High or Crisis zones.
What it is
The Method page names five "timing signals" that it uses to judge whether a moment is a good one to put extra money into an index fund. Two are about the whole market: the VIX and the AAII bearish share. Three are about each fund: RSI, where the price sits in its 52-week range, and how the price compares with its 200-day average. These pages show all five for every major fund and for the 11 sector funds.
What it means
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a score from 0 to 100 that compares recent up days with recent down days over 14 trading days. Below 30 means the fund has fallen hard lately (Oversold), 30 to 45 is a pullback, 45 to 60 is neutral, 60 to 70 is elevated, and above 70 means it has risen fast (Overbought). The 52-week range shows where today's price sits between the lowest and highest prices of the past year: 0% is the low and 100% is the high. vs 200-day compares the price with its average over the last 200 trading days; being above it means the long-term trend is up. Each reading gets a one-word label and a color: green for Strong, red for Caution and grey for Neutral, using the method's "What Strong Signals Look Like" table. The last columns count how many of the five signals are Strong and how many are Caution. The combined tier comes from the method's rules for reading AAII and the VIX together.
Guidelines to keep in mind
The signals are meant to be read together. The method's strongest setup is when they line up: a high VIX, heavy bearish sentiment, a low RSI and a price near its 52-week low, while the price still holds above its 200-day average. A single Strong reading on its own means much less. The method also says these signals are for extra cash you already have, not a reason to pause regular investing from each paycheck.
Where the data comes from
Prices come from Yahoo Finance and are calculated the same way as the ETF screener on this site: RSI is the 14-day Wilder RSI over the past year of closing prices; the 52-week range uses each day's highest and lowest trade; the 200-day average uses closing prices. The VIX and AAII readings are the ones on their own pages. Where the method leaves a gap between its bands (RSI 60 to 70, the 75 to 90% part of the range, and prices within 2% of the 200-day average), the labels Elevated, Upper and Average fill it.
Takeaways
These pages turn the method's rules into a checklist you can scan in seconds. Most weeks, most funds will be Neutral on most signals, and that is normal: the method's strongest setups are rare by design.
What it is
The stock market is often split into 11 sectors, groups of companies in the same kind of business: technology, communication (such as media and social networks), consumer discretionary (things people want but can skip, like cars and travel), consumer staples (things people buy anyway, like food and soap), financials, health care, industrials, energy, materials, utilities and real estate. The Select Sector SPDR funds hold the companies of the S&P 500, one fund per sector.
What it means
Each column is the fund's total return over that period, the same way the Major indices table works, and the table is sorted so this week's best sector is at the top. When sectors like technology and consumer discretionary lead, investors are usually leaning toward growth and spending; when staples, utilities and health care lead, they are usually leaning toward steadier businesses. Energy and materials often follow the prices of oil and raw materials.
Guidelines to keep in mind
Sector funds are less spread out than a fund that holds the whole market, so their ups and downs are bigger and a slump in one industry can last a long time. The Method page treats them as smaller, higher-risk positions next to broad market funds, and its timing signals for them are on the next page.
Where the data comes from
Prices come from Yahoo Finance, using adjusted closes so dividends are included, exactly like the Major indices table. "n/a" means the fund is younger than the period: the communication fund (XLC) started in 2018.
Takeaways
Sector returns show which parts of the economy investors are favoring. A big week for the whole market can hide large differences underneath, and this table makes them visible.
What it is
Investors are people, and how confident or nervous they feel shows up in prices. This section tracks four measurements that tend to change when investors as a group are feeling confident or worried. Each one is measured the same way every week, so you can compare this week to last week fairly. The VIX, a fifth mood reading, has its own page.
What it means
Momentum compares the S&P 500 with its average price over the last 125 trading days (about six months); above the average means prices have been climbing. Breadth is the share of the 500 companies trading above their own 200-day average; a high number means most companies are rising together, and a low one means a few big companies are carrying the index. Safe-haven demand compares stocks (SPY) with long-term government bonds (TLT) over 20 trading days; when people are worried they move money into bonds, so a negative number means bonds did better. Junk bond demand is the extra interest that companies with weaker finances must pay to borrow, compared with the government; that gap widens when lenders get nervous.
Guidelines to keep in mind
No single reading tells the whole story. Look at whether they agree: if most point the same way, the mood is clear; if they disagree, the market is mixed. Extremes matter more than readings near the middle. Mood describes how people feel right now, and it can change quickly; historically, very fearful periods have often come near market lows, but mood has never been a reliable way to pick the exact day to buy or sell.
Where the data comes from
Momentum, breadth and safe-haven demand are calculated from Yahoo Finance closing prices. Momentum is the S&P 500 divided by its 125-day average, minus 1. Breadth counts how many S&P 500 members closed above their 200-day average. Safe-haven demand is SPY's 20-day return minus TLT's 20-day return. The junk bond spread is the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread, published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
Takeaways
Mood moves much faster than the businesses underneath it. A company does not become half as valuable because investors had a nervous week, which is why these readings are best used to understand the headlines, and to notice when your own feelings are simply following the crowd.
What it is
When the US government needs to borrow money, it sells bonds called Treasuries. A bond is a loan: you give the government money now, it pays you interest, and it pays the money back on a set date. The yield is the yearly interest rate a buyer earns by holding the bond until that date. Treasuries come in different lengths, from 3 months to 30 years, and this table shows four of them.
What it means
When a yield goes up, borrowing becomes more expensive across the economy, because mortgages, car loans and company loans are priced off these rates; savers, on the other hand, earn more. Changes are shown in basis points, where 100 basis points equals 1 percentage point, so "+29 bps" means the yield rose by 0.29 points. Short-term yields mostly follow the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, while long-term yields reflect what investors expect for growth and inflation over many years. Normally longer bonds pay more; when short-term yields are higher than long-term ones, the "yield curve" is called inverted, which has often, but not always, come before a recession.
Guidelines to keep in mind
A move of 10 to 20 basis points in a week is notable, and 50 or more is large. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, like a seesaw: when yields rise, the price of existing bonds falls. Rising yields can weigh on stock prices, especially fast-growing companies, because a safe 5% from the government makes riskier investments look less attractive by comparison. The 10-year yield is the one most people watch, since mortgage rates tend to follow it.
Where the data comes from
The yields come from Yahoo Finance, which carries the Cboe Treasury yield indexes for the 13-week bill and the 5, 10 and 30-year notes and bonds. The change is this Friday's yield minus last Friday's (or minus the year-end yield, for year to date), multiplied by 100 to put it in basis points. The 2-year yield is left out for now because its data source was returning stale values.
Takeaways
Interest rates are the price of money, and they touch nearly everything: what a home costs to finance, what a savings account pays, and how investors value stocks. When the headlines say rates moved, this table shows by how much and for which lengths of loan.
What it is
This section tracks important prices outside the stock market. Oil is shown two ways: WTI, the US benchmark, and Brent, the global one. Gold is the metal people have used to store value for thousands of years. Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two largest cryptocurrencies, which are digital assets with no company or government behind them. The US Dollar Index measures the dollar against six major currencies, such as the euro and the Japanese yen.
What it means
Oil prices flow into gas prices and the cost of shipping almost everything, so they affect inflation. Gold often rises when people are worried or when they expect money to lose value. Crypto prices move mainly on investor demand and can swing far more than stocks. A stronger dollar makes imports and foreign travel cheaper for Americans, but makes US goods more expensive abroad, which can hurt companies that sell overseas, and it lowers the value of foreign stocks (such as VXUS) for US investors.
Guidelines to keep in mind
These prices are much jumpier than the major stock indexes: a 10% week is ordinary for Bitcoin and not unusual for oil. Look for connections rather than reading each number alone. Rising oil can push up inflation, which can push up bond yields; gold and the dollar often move in opposite directions. Futures prices for oil and gold can differ slightly from the prices quoted in the news, which may use a different contract.
Where the data comes from
All prices come from Yahoo Finance. Oil and gold are the front-month futures contracts (CL=F for WTI, BZ=F for Brent, GC=F for gold). Bitcoin and Ethereum trade around the clock, every day, so their prices are the latest available when the report is made. The dollar index is the ICE US Dollar Index. Each change is the latest price divided by last Friday's (or year-end) price, minus 1.
Takeaways
These markets are the background to the stock market. When stocks have a strange week, the explanation is often here: an oil price jump, a sudden rush into gold, or a sharp move in the dollar. Reading them together gives a fuller picture than any one of them alone.